PUBLICATION:        The Winnipeg Sun 

DATE:                         2003.07.28

EDITION:                    Final 

SECTION:                  Editorial/Opinion 

PAGE:                         9 

ILLUSTRATION: photo Despite a decrease in auto thefts last year, the number has nearly quadrupled since 1990. 

BYLINE:  TOM BRODBECK 

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CRIME, SIR, ISN'T ALL IN OUR HEADS

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Canada Safety Council president Emile Therien says Canadians' fear of crime is all in their heads. And he blames the media and self-serving politicians for the indoctrination.

In a press release issued last week, Therien argues the only reason people think crime has worsened over the years is because of false information spread by "media hype" and "political expediency."

"Therien points out that, although the public's fears do not match the facts, fear itself is a danger," says the release. "He contends that the fear of crime has greater potential to destroy our communities than crime itself."

Therien and the Canada Safety Council better take another look at the facts. If they did, they would see that people have every right to complain about high crime rates. That's because even though Canada's crime rate has been falling in recent years -- including last year, according to Statistics Canada -- it's still far higher today than it was in the 1960s and 1970s.

There were 7,964 Criminal Code offences per 100,000 people reported to police last year in Canada. Until the mid-1970s, that rate never got above 7,000.

Statistics are funny things. You can claim that crime is on the decline. But in some cases, it's only because the decline comes after years of huge increases.

It sounds good. But when you look at the long-term trend, crime today is much higher than it was when I was growing up (I was born in 1964).

The truth is, crime grew substantially throughout the 1970s, 1980s and the early part of the 1990s. The fact that it's dropped a bit since the early 1990s doesn't mean it's returned to 1970s levels. Not even close.

It's like Newfoundland. It has a weak economy. Its gross domestic product is lower than most provinces. So when it has a really good year economically, its growth rate might be 8% or 9%, "leading the country economically."

It doesn't mean Newfoundland's economy is stronger than Ontario's, which may have had a 3.3% increase. It just means Newfoundland's starting point is much lower than everybody else's.

It's the same as crime rates in Winnipeg. Many have rejoiced over a 2% drop in crime in Winnipeg last year. Well, the only reason it fell 2% in 2002 was because 2001 was the worst year for crime since 1995. Crime in Winnipeg in 2002 was actually higher than in 2000, 1999 and 1998.

NEVER HEARD SUCH MALARKEY

Therien's theory about people's fear of crime is nonsense. He says the fear may be worse than the crime itself because people will stay off the streets, creating "abandoned, dangerous streets."

I've never heard such malarkey in my life.

Maybe folks are staying off the streets because there are more robberies today than there were in the 1980s. At least that's the case in Winnipeg.

In 1989, there were 978 robberies reported to police in Winnipeg. In 1990, it was 1,096.

Last year, there were 1,498 robberies in Winnipeg. That's a 37% increase compared to 1990.

Those are the facts. More people are being robbed today than they were in 1990. Therefore, people are more afraid to go out at night or walk the streets. It's not all in their heads, Mr. Therien. It's reality.

It's the same with auto theft, which quadrupled throughout the 1990s. If it drops 13% one year, which it did in Winnipeg last year, who cares? There are still nearly four times as many cars stolen each year in Winnipeg compared to 1990. The problem hasn't gone away.

In 1990, there were 2,388 vehicles stolen in Winnipeg. Last year, there were 9,321. That's not my imagination, Mr. Therien. Those are the cold, hard facts. And it's definitely not "media hype."

When the crime rate starts coming down to levels seen in the 1970s, then Mr. Therien can start claiming victory.

Until then, the Canada Safety Council should spend more time calling for tougher laws to crack down on criminals to help reduce crime and less time trying to convince us the problem is all in our heads.

Tom Brodbeck is the Sun's city columnist. He can be reached by e-mail at tbrodbeck@wpgsun.com.
Letters to the editor should be sent to editor@wpgsun.com.