PUBLICATION

PUBLICATION: The Ottawa Citizen

DATE: 2004.04.24

EDITION: Final

SECTION: News

PNAME: Editorial

PAGE: B6

COLUMN: Dan Gardner

BYLINE: Dan Gardner

SOURCE: The Ottawa Citizen

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You say there's an epidemic of gun violence? Prove it

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Strange things can happen when you ask people how they know what they think they know. Consider gun crime in Toronto, which most people think is exploding.

It's an impression moulded by the sporadic outbursts of bloody gun crime that periodically terrify the city -- most recently in March. The media have chronicled every shot, editorialists have worried and community activists rallied. Everyone from Mayor David Miller to Paul Martin has expressed concern. Julian Fantino, Toronto's police chief, has been particularly vocal, arguing that the bloodshed proves "the justice system is broken."

Michael Bryant, the attorney general of Ontario, captured the tone of rising alarm perfectly in a series of interviews in March. He promised to combat the crisis by having Crown attorneys seek longer sentences for gun crimes, and he mused about shifting resources from other prosecutions. Swift action was needed because, Mr. Bryant's spokesman said, "we're seeing more and more gun violence and serious violent crime in Ontario, particularly Toronto."

That statement is far from controversial but truth isn't found in a show of hands. To make such an important claim, the attorney general must have hard evidence. So I called Mr. Bryant's office and asked for it.

I was told the the A-G's office was preparing an affidavit for Crowns to use in seeking longer sentences and that affidavit would contain the evidence. It would be ready in two weeks. A fortnight later, I called and was told the affidavit wasn't done. A week later, I called again and was once more brushed off. When I kept pressing, I was finally told the A-G's office has no data but they would be getting it from the Toronto Police Service, so I should call them instead.

It thus appears that Mr. Bryant was talking tough and announcing measures to combat a rise in gun crime of which he had no evidence. This is perhaps not the wisest way to craft criminal justice policies.

As suggested, I called the Toronto police. I asked for long-term trend data on gun crime because crime numbers sometimes jump up and down briefly without reflecting real change in the underlying crime rate. That's particularly true for crimes where the absolute numbers involved are very small. What really counts is the trend over time. Bumps and spikes may mean little but a steady rise or fall likely shows a real change on the street.

A police spokesman told me they don't have trend data. The best numbers they have are compiled by the gun task force, but those numbers only go back two years because that's how long the unit has existed. Fine, I said, the numbers may be weak but please let me see them. The spokesman promised to get back to me later that day. He didn't. I made several more phone calls over several days. I got nothing, not even a return call.

Last stop, the ever-reliable Statistics Canada. Unfortunately, the latest numbers StatsCan has available are for 2002. But StatsCan does have gun-crime data going back a decade, providing a clear picture of trends.

It's a picture that won't please the alarmists: In some categories, Toronto gun crime has been flat over the decade, while in others it has dropped.

First, homicides. From 1992 to 2000, homicides in which a firearm was present fluctuated between 12 (in 1995) and 22 (in 1993 and 1994). In other words, there was no real change even though the city's population was growing rapidly. Then in 2001, the total jumped to 31. In 2002, it dropped to 27.

The attempted murder trend even more clearly shows no change. In 1992, there were 41 attempted murders with a firearm present; in 2002, there were 40. The trend in aggravated assaults with a firearm is also flat as a prairie landscape.

Other categories of gun crime do show major change, but it is all downward. There were 185 assaults with a firearm present in 1992; in 2002, there were 100. Kidnappings with a firearm went from 44 to 23. Robberies with a firearm plummeted from 1,111 to 546.

In fact, the decline of robberies with firearms is one of the great under-reported stories of the last decade. Across Ontario, from 1992 to 2002, the rate of such crimes dropped by more than half. The Toronto rate also dropped by more than half. In Ottawa, between 1992 and 2002, the rate of robberies with firearms actually fell by three-quarters.

This all looks like good news to me. But if Mr. Bryant or Chief Fantino ever come up with some real evidence to support their self-interested alarmism, I'd love hear it. They have my phone number.

Dan Gardner is a Citizen senior writer. Email: dgardner@thecitizen.canwest.com

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KEEPING VIOLENT CRIME AND GUNS IN PERSPECTIVE

Revised: February 10, 2004

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/keepinggunsinperspective.htm

PERCENTAGE OF ROBBERIES COMMITTED WITH LONG GUNS = 1%

Documented as of: December 8, 2003

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/RobberiesbytypeofWeaponPresent2002.xls1.xls

PERCENTAGE OF ROBBERIES WHERE VICTIMS ARE INJURED WITH LONG GUNS = 0%

Documented as of: December 8, 2003

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/RobberyIncidentsbyLevelofInjury2002.xls

HOMICIDES INVOLVING FIREARMS, 1974-2002

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/HomicidesinvolvingFirearms,1974-2002.pdf

NOTE: Despite seven decades of mandatory handgun registration, the use of handguns in firearms homicides has been steadily increasing since 1974, from 26.9% to 65.8% in 2002. Conversely, firearms homicides with rifles and shotguns that weren't registered until very recently dropped steadily (63.6% to 24.8%) over the same 28-year period.

Lorne Gunter Column: "Net effect of intrusive, error-plagued, billion-dollar registry? Zero"

http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/Article180.htm

"Moreover, handguns now are used to commit two-thirds of Canada's firearms homicides, up from one-third in the past decade or so. But handguns have had to be registered since 1934, proving conclusively that registering guns cannot and will not prevent murders or violence. If it could, handgun murders should be the rarest form, not the most common."