PUBLICATION:              Calgary Herald

DATE:                         2004.08.01

EDITION:                    Final

SECTION:                  Opinion

PAGE:                         A10

SOURCE:                   Calgary Herald

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Be careful out there: Crime is up, and it could get worse

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The world really is getting more dangerous, and Canadians should brace themselves because it's only going to get worse.

Statistics Canada released the 2003 crime statistics last Wednesday, which found that Canada's national crime rate increased six per cent last year, the first substantial gain in more than a decade (by comparison, Calgary's incidence of Criminal Code offences increased two per cent).

It is commonly reported that crime rates peaked in 1991 and have been in free fall ever since, which may have led to a degree of complacency among the general public and policy makers. After all, if crime is on the decline, there is no reason to toughen up sentencing guidelines and throw the book at criminal wrongdoers, is there? Well, there is now.

Some may argue that because of extensive media reporting on violent crime, especially homicides, the public has a distorted impression of how dangerous communities are. (That's not all bad -- at least, these events are enough of a rarity that they are newsworthy.)

However, statistics don't tell the full story, either. For instance, the national homicide rate fell seven per cent last year to its lowest level in 35 years. Yet the increase in the number of attempted murders almost completely offset this decrease. Less people are being killed, but it may have more to do with improved hospital care than for lack of trying.

And although violent crime is down in general, it is curious to note that robberies are up for the first time since 1996, including a 10 per cent increase in those committed with a firearm -- just more proof that the bloated and ill-conceived firearms registry isn't living up to its promise.

The statistics are particularly sobering in the area of property crime, which had more than 1.3 million victims last year, four times the number of violent crime victims. Across the board -- break and enter, auto theft, theft, possession of stolen goods and fraud -- property crimes are on the rise. This is especially alarming considering the lengths citizens have already gone to protect themselves, with private security, home alarms, anti-theft devices and other safety measures.

As demographics change, the world isn't going to get any safer, either. Though the 2003 crime rate is 15 per cent lower than a decade ago, it is still 14 per cent higher than 25 years ago. In the 1998 study, the Cost of Crime, authors Stephan Easton and Paul Brantingham looked at demographic trends and forecast that the downward slide in crime rates would reverse in the year 2000 and continue until about 2010, as the number of males aged 15 to 24 increased. They may have been a few years off, but it would appear that Canada may have just entered into another decade-long crime spree.

Easton and Brantingham also predicted that over a lifetime of 60 active years, a person would have more than a 99 per cent chance of becoming a victim of crime. So, if you don't feel secure, there's a reason.