FIREARMS
FACTS UPDATE
HOW
MANY GUN OWNERS
HAVE
COMPLIED WITH THE GUN REGISTRY?
By Garry Breitkreuz, MP – September 10, 2003
As
each deadline for the licencing of all firearm owners (January 1, 2001) and the
registration of all guns (January 1, 2003) passed, the government claimed and
the media reported compliance rates. Here
are our calculations of Firearms Act compliance rates based on the
best-documented evidence available from the government and academic sources.
Calculations are based on Dept. of Justice licencing and registration
statistics as of July 5, 2003.
In
order to calculate firearm licencing and gun registration compliance rates
accurately we needed both the number of gun owners and the number of guns in
Canada before the licencing and registration process started on December 1,
1998. We also needed to know the
most current number of firearms licences issued and number of guns registered.
COMPLIANCE RATES – LICENCING OF FIREARM
OWNERS
Number
of Firearms Licences Issued as of April 12, 2003
= 1,930,844
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsLicencesbyProv-2003-04-12.xls
Number
of Firearms Licences Issued from CFC website
= 1,945,000
http://www.cfc-ccaf.gc.ca/en/general_public/program_statistics/default.asp
Number
of Gun Owners in Canada – Jan 2003 CSSA Estimates
=
5,000,000
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/Non-compliance%20with%20the%20Firearms%20Act.pdf
Number
of Gun Owners in Canada – May 1998 Gov’t Estimates
=
3,300,000
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/GunsinCanada.htm
Number of Gun Owners in Canada – Fall 2000 Gov’t Estimates
= 2,300,000
http://www.cfc-ccaf.gc.ca/en/general_public/news_releases/survey-01252001.asp
Number
of Gun Owners in Canada – Jan 2001 Mauser’s Estimates
=
2,700,000
http://www.sfu.ca/~mauser/papers/cbc/Commentary6-12-02.pdf
LICENCING
COMPLIANCE RATE USING 2003 CSSA ESTIMATES
= 39%
LICENCING
COMPLIANCE RATE USING 1998 GOV’T ESTIMATES
= 59%
LICENCING
COMPLIANCE RATE USING 2000 GOV’T ESTIMATES
= 85%
LICENCING COMPLIANCE RATE USING 2001 MAUSER ESTIMATES
= 72%
NOTE #1: The deadline for all firearms owners to have a licence was Jan 1,
2001.
NOTE #2: Firearms can only be registered by the holder of a valid Possession and
Acquisition Licence.
COMPLIANCE RATES – REGISTRATION OF FIREARMS
Number of Firearms Registered as of July 5, 2003 = 6,482,845
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsRegistered-2003-07-05.xls
Number
of Guns in Canada – Mar 1976 Gov’t Estimates
=
16,500,000
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/breitkreuzgpress/GunControl50.htm
Number
of Guns in Canada – Jan 2003 CSSA Estimates
=
11,000,000
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/Non-compliance%20with%20the%20Firearms%20Act.pdf
Number of Guns in Canada – Aug 2002 Gov’t Estimates
= 7,900,000
http://www.cfc-ccaf.gc.ca/en/general_public/program_statistics/default.asp
REGISTRATION
COMPLIANCE RATE USING 1976 GOV’T ESTIMATES
= 39%
REGISTRATION
COMPLIANCE RATE USING 2003 CSSA ESTIMATES
= 59%
REGISTRATION
COMPLIANCE RATE USING 2002 GOV’T ESTIMATES
= 82%
NOTE:
The deadline for all guns to be registered was Jan 1, 2003.
-------------
GOVERNMENT
ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF GUN OWNERS WHO STILL HAVEN’T REGISTERED OR
RE-REGISTERED
THEIR
GUNS AS OF July 5, 2003
NUMBER OF LICENCED INDIVIDUALS STILL TO REGISTER = 428,639
Documented
as of: July 5, 2003
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsRegistered-2003-07-05.xls
NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS STILL TO RE-REGISTER THEIR GUNS = 324,768
Documented
as of: July 5, 2003
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsRegistered-2003-07-05.xls
Documented
as of: July 5, 2003
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsRegistered-2003-07-05.xls
NUMBER OF HANDGUNS STILL TO BE RE-REGISTERED = 645,921
Documented
as of: July 5, 2003
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/FirearmsRegistered-2003-07-05.xls
-------------
GOVERNMENT
ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF GUN OWNERS WHO HAVE STILL NOT OBTAINED A FIREARMS
LICENCE
AS
OF AUGUST 2, 2003
NUMBER
OF GUN OWNERS IN CANADA FROM CFC WEBSITE
= 2,300,000
http://www.cfc-ccaf.gc.ca/en/general_public/news_releases/survey-01252001.asp
NUMBER
OF LICENCED GUN OWNERS FROM CFC WEBSITE
= 1,945,000
http://www.cfc-ccaf.gc.ca/en/general_public/program_statistics/default.asp
____________________________
NUMBER
OF UNLICENCED GUN OWNERS IN CANADA
= 355,000
NUMBER
OF OWNERS OF REGISTERED HANDGUNS WITHOUT A LICENCE = 304,375
Documented
as of: May 27, 2002
http://www.cssa-cila.org/garryb/publications/ohwhatamess.htm
NOTE:
Handguns can only be re-registered by the holder of a valid Possession and
Acquisition Licence.