Do you believe Mark Carney’s Liberal government will compensate you fairly for your confiscated firearms?
We don’t, because this scheme only pays compensation in narrowly defined circumstances.
Declare, Beg, and Pray
Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree is crystal clear.[i]
- If you do not declare your guns by March 31, 2026, you won’t get a dime. No declaration = no compensation.
- Your declaration is not automatically approved. It is an application for compensation, not a guarantee you’ll get any money.
- Approval is no guarantee of compensation. The compensation scheme is capped at $260 million.
- Compensation is handled on Ottawa’s terms, not yours. Amounts paid are based on make and model, and their assessment of your firearm’s value. Their decision is final.
- Compliance is mandatory, compensation is conditional. The amnesty ends whether you were paid or not. If you don’t turn in your banned firearms by October 30, 2026, you could face criminal charges for illegal possession of a prohibited firearm, which carries a maximum penalty of 14 years in prison.[ii]
That’s not a compensation program, it’s a confiscation scheme with a harsh criminal compliance deadline attached.
The Money: The Only Honest Part of the Entire Scheme
Public Safety Canada’s own language says the confiscation program will cost roughly $742 million. Of that, Public Safety clearly states that only $260 million is earmarked as “grants” for individuals who comply with the scheme’s demands.[iii]
That number matters, because it reveals the truth about their compensation scheme.
It’s not designed to compensate all legal gun owners.
It’s designed to pay a small percentage of gun owners (and screw the rest).
Carney’s capped compensation fund, declaration deadline, and first come first served compensation means the province with the clearest path and the least friction will get most (or all) of the $260 million available.
That structure delivers what Mark Carney wants most: a predictable political outcome.
Hundreds of the firearms banned by the 2020 Order in Council and subsequent RCMP additions were classified as non-restricted before being added to the list.
Most owners of those now-prohibited firearms do not have a Restricted Possession and Acquisition License (RPAL).
This is why the Carney government demands you self-identify. It’s their only hope of figuring out who owns those firearms.
Unless you live in Quebec.
Quebec’s non-restricted firearms registry means they already know what guns licensed owners possess.
That’s big incentive to participate. The alternative is a maximum prison sentence of 14 years.
The rational move for Quebec gun owners is to declare now because the province that declares first will drain the compensation pool.
Quebec Gun Confiscation Math
For Quebec, the 2024 Commissioner of Firearms report lists
- 437,575 Non-Restricted PAL holders,
- 56,140 Restricted PAL holders, and
- 5,553 Prohibited PAL holders.[iv]
Estimates of how many PAL holders are in possession of prohibited firearms range from 27% to over 50%.
Assuming that:
- the AR-15 compensation of $1,337 per firearm[v], and
- 27% of Quebec PAL holders own now-prohibited firearms (Lowest gov’t estimate)
Quebec’s 192,996 affected gun owners will receive $240,443,740 in compensation.
That’s almost the entire fund, assuming Quebec’s PAL, RPAL and PPAL holders only owned a single banned firearm. That’s not very likely.
Gun owners in other provinces won’t receive a dime.
Total Cost of Firearms Confiscation Compensation
If Ottawa was forced to pay compensation to all affected gun owners using 27% of PAL holders across the country, the total would easily surpass 1.6 billion dollars.
If the real number approaches 50% of all PAL holders, total compensation would hit $2.1 billion, assuming every affected license holder only owned a single now-prohibited firearm.
No wonder Carney’s Liberal government wants to cap compensation at $260 million. Paying it would cost more than the Liberal’s last firearms boondoggle, the 2 Billion Dollar Gun Registry failure.
(see the entire calculations in this spreadsheet: http://cssa-cila.org/QuebecFirst)
“Quebec First” Is Not a Slogan, It Is a Pattern
This policy began under Justin Trudeau, continues under Mark Carney, and follows the Liberals’ time-honoured playbook.
- Quebec First.
- Quebec Always.
- Screw the rest of the country.
You don’t need an internal memo to see the incentives.
You need only look at the historical habit of feeding Quebec politically, then telling the rest of Canada to get in line.
Look at the math. A capped compensation pool does not pay all affected Canadian gun owners. At best, it pays a small slice of them.
So which slice does Ottawa pay first?
- The slice that keeps the Liberal base happy.
- The slice that delivers the cleanest headlines.
- The slice that preserves their political brand.
If you think that’s a province other than Quebec, you aren’t paying attention.
The Implementation Layer Is Opting Out
Here is the point that should end the debate for any honest observer.
The people Ottawa needs to run this confiscation scheme all refuse to have anything to do with it.[vi]
- Provincial & territorial governments are publicly refusing to administer it.
- Alberta
- Manitoba
- New Brunswick
- Newfoundland and Labrador
- Nova Scotia
- Ontario (Doug Ford)
- Saskatchewan
- Northwest Territories
- Yukon
- Police services & associations across Canada are publicly refusing to participate.
- Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police (CACP)
- National Police Federation (RCMP union)
- British Columbia Chiefs of Police
- New Brunswick Chiefs of Police Association
- New Brunswick – Saint John Police
- Ontario – Chiefs of Police Association, President Mark Campbell “Lawfully owned rifles aren’t driving gang violence or crime. Smuggled handguns are.”
- Ontario Provincial Police (OPP)
- Ontario – Aylmer Police
- Ontario – Barrie Police Service
- Ontario – Brantford Police
- Ontario – Brockville Police
- Ontario – Chatham-Kent Police Service (CKPS)
- Ontario – Durham Region Police Chief
- Ontario – Hamilton Police
- Ontario – Kawartha Lakes Police
- Ontario – LaSalle Police Service
- Ontario – London Police Service
- Ontario – North Bay Police
- Ontario – Owen Sound Police Service
- Ontario – Peterborough Police
- Ontario – Saugeen Shores Police Service
- Ontario – Sarnia Police Force
- Ontario – St. Thomas Police
- Ontario – Strathroy-Caradoc Police Service
- Ontario – Toronto Police Force
- Ontario – Toronto Police Union
- Ontario – West Grey Police
- Ontario – Windsor Police
- Ontario – Woodstock Police Service
- Ontario – York Regional Police
- PEI – Charlottetown Police
They’re saying – out loud – what Ottawa refuses to admit.
- The program is vague.
- It’s resource-heavy.
- It’s not a public safety priority.
- It’s nothing but public safety political theatre.
If the provinces will not endorse it and police forces will not run it, what exactly is this program?
A federal press release with a compliance deadline.
What You Need to Say Out Loud to Every Gun Owner You Know
This is the message.
Share it. Repeat it. Tattoo it on the inside of your eyelids if you have to.
- If you do not apply, you get nothing.
- If you apply, you must be approved.
- If you are approved, compensation is still not guaranteed.
- If you are processed after the money runs out, you get nothing.
- If you are processed in time, Ottawa decides your gun’s value, not the market.
There isn’t enough money to make Canadian gun owners whole.
There is just enough money to create the illusion of compensation for a politically useful campaign that leaves everyone outside Quebec fighting over scraps.
So much can change between now and October 30, 2026.
Mark Carney’s spring election plan could backfire on him.
If that happens, this entire mess would be wiped away under a Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre.
Do not turn in your guns until the deadline.
[i] https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/campaigns/firearms-buyback/submit-firearm-declaration-individual.html
[ii] https://criminalnotebook.ca/index.php/Possession_of_a_Restricted_or_Prohibited_Firearm_(Offence)
[iii] https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/trnsprnc/brfng-mtrls/prlmntry-bndrs/20251003-1/index-en.aspx
[v] https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/cntrng-crm/frrms/bp-en.aspx
[vi] https://www.canadiangunnutz.com/forum/threads/list-of-non-participating-provinces-police.2560866/
1 Comment
Tom
Good citizens have the duty to not comply with the illegal and immoral policies of a compromised government.