Nova Scotia Landslide: A Harbinger of What’s to Come Federally?

Two Atlantic provincial elections delivered dramatically different results. In New Brunswick’s election, Premier Blaine Higgs lost his seat as well as his government to a Susan Holt’s Liberal Party.

Five weeks later, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston led his Progressive Conservative Party to an even larger majority than he won the first time. Zach Churchill, the Nova Scotia Liberal Party leader, lost his seat and his party’s official opposition status.

These two provinces, side by side on the map, are strikingly similar in electoral meaning, if not electoral results.

The federal Liberal brand is damaged goods under Justin Trudeau.

Susan Holt knew it and ran as Team Holt, cutting all connection with Justin Trudeau’s federal Liberal Party while running on a platform of fiscal responsibility – a traditionally conservative value.

Tim Houston knew it too and linked every provincial Liberal platform promise to Justin Trudeau. That message resonated so deeply that he painted the province in PC Blue.^[i]

The Lesson?

Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberal Party he leads is in deep trouble in Atlantic Canada, a region that traditionally supports them.

They’re in deep trouble in the rest of the country too, according to poll after poll.

Mainstreet’s Canadian Federal Election portal displays a graphic showing the Conservatives with a 100% probability of forming a majority government with 245 seats in the House of Commons.

They also project the Bloc Québécois to form the Official Opposition.

Mainstreet Research shows the Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre leading with 42% of decided voters.^[ii]

In contrast, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are tied with the NDP at just 14% of decided voters. Another 14% are undecided, but even if Trudeau were to win over every one of those votes, he would still fall far short of victory.

The Only Poll That Matters

While the Mainstreet poll and others like it are reassuring for Canadians who are sick of Trudeau’s ethical breaches and endless scandals, they don’t matter.

Election Day is the only poll that matters, so we cannot sit back and tell ourselves the lie that our vote doesn’t matter.

The only way Pierre Poilievre forms government is if every single one of us does our duty – our minimum duty – and votes in the next federal election.

If we want to repeat Nova Scotia’s electoral result nationally, we must work hard with our local Electoral District Association to ensure they have the resources – financial and human – to pain the nation Conservative Blue.

Only then will we stand a chance to protect ourselves and our firearms.