Are The Winds of Change Sweeping Across Canada?

Three provinces went to the polls in October. The results of those contests signaled that change is in the air, although in very different ways.

In New Brunswick, Blaine Higgs’s Progressive Conservative government fell to Susan Holt and her provincial Liberal Party. Premier Higgs lost his own seat.

Holt distanced herself from Justin Trudeau by branding her campaign “Team Holt,” dropping the Liberal moniker completely.^[i]

“They figured out a way to make this about Blaine Higgs and about Susan Holt … and they kept the Liberal brand out of it,” said political scientist J.P. Lewis.

Higgs’s government was plagued by internal division on a range of issues, including who has authority over children, their parents or the state.

In Saskatchewan, Premier Scott Moe won his fifth consecutive majority government^[ii], but it came with some key losses from his cabinet:^[iii]

Justice Minister and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre
Social Services Minister Gene Makowsky
Corrections, Policing and Public Safety Minister Paul Merriman
Environment Minister Christine Tell

These losses mean we’ll see several new faces leading Saskatchewan’s defense of hunters, farmers and sports shooters. While the faces may be new, we see no change coming in how Premier Scott Moe handles the firearms file.

In British Columbia, a decision was finally rendered by Elections BC, proclaiming that Premier David Eby and the NDP were victorious. Despite that declaration of victory, whether Eby forms a minority or majority government remains uncertain, as at least two ridings are headed for judicial recount. That process could take weeks.

Those recounts will take place in the ridings of Kelowna Centre, where the BC Conservative candidate leads by 38 votes, and Surrey-Guildford, where the incumbent NDP candidate leads by just 27 votes.

“We have made history in BC,” said John Rustad.^[iv] “Just 18 months ago, the Conservative Party of BC was at 2% in the polls, had no members, no money, no team. But what we did have was grit, determination and a massive grassroots movement that would make the impossible happen.”

On the heels of these results, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston called a snap election in the hopes he can avoid Blaine Higgs’s electoral disaster and replicate Scott Moe’s history-making victory.

Houston’s decision is based on two factors; an impending federal election and his decision to seek a renewed mandate from Nova Scotians to make the changes required so people are better “able to afford their lives.”

In 2021, as part of the debate surrounding a fixed election date, Houston said, “Nova Scotians want to have confidence in their electoral system. Parties in opposition want a level playing field, and Elections Nova Scotia, Mr. Speaker, they want to be able to prepare as effectively and efficiently as they possibly can for general elections.”^[v]

This election will see if voters punish Premier Houston for his decision.

“Polling is high, that’s why he’s going,” said Aurora Strategy Group principal Chris Collins. “It’s not about issues, it’s not about getting a mandate. It’s about taking advantage of the timing. It’s not a stupid move, it really isn’t.”

The National Picture

The backdrop for these provincial results is a much-weakened federal Liberal government headed by Justin Trudeau, and the real possibility that Canadians will head into a federal election by spring.

The likelihood of this is increased by Justin Trudeau’s failure to deliver on Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet’s deadline of October 29th to pass Bill C-319, which proposes a 10 percent increase for Old Age Security (OAS) payouts for seniors ages 65 to 74, and Bill C-282, which seeks protections for dairy, poultry and egg producers in future trade talks.

“I’m ready for an election,” Blanchet said.^[vi] “Not only are we ready, but we might be expecting that with enthusiasm. I do not believe that Quebecers want elections so much, but I do believe that they will understand that this is where we are now.”

Then he addressed comments made by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre urging Blanchet to topple the Trudeau Liberal government.

“Despite the impoliteness and comments of Poilievre, he needs us, and he could start by saying please,” said Blanchet. “But we won’t be doing anything that’s in favour of Conservatives, but in favour of Quebecers. And toppling the government is in favour of Quebecers.”

The Liberal Party responded to Blanchet’s commitment to end the Trudeau government with a fundraising email titled, “We may not have long.”

We know the Conservatives want an early election, and today the Bloc said they’ll start working with the other parties to stop our progress and push an early campaign. We could be in an election at any moment…
Andrew Bevan, National Campaign Director for the Liberal Party.

CSSA hopes that Andrew Bevan is correct.

We hope that Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government – one plagued by endless ethics breaches and scandals – doesn’t have long before they’re cast into the political wilderness, replaced by a government that is willing to abide by the Constitution and the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

What a refreshing change that will be!